OPTIMIZING TRADING AND OPERATIONS IN A MULTI-SHIPPER ENVIRONMENT
Published by (LNG San Antonio)
Authors: Pedram Fanailoo. Published April 01, 2008
Panel speaker at LNG San Antonio on the subject of managing access rights to multi-shipper terminals.
OTC 19539 IMPROVING RELIABILITY AND REDUCING INTERVENTION COSTS OF ULTRA-DEEP SUBSEA TECHNOLOGY AT THE DESIGN STAGE
Published by (OTC 2008)
Authors: Pedram Fanailoo. Published May 01, 2008
The current trend in offshore exploration and production (E&P) is geared towards developments in greater depths and harsher environments. The challenge of realizing fields at depths of greater than 5,000 feet normally requires unproven technology operating in harsh environments.
Deferred production is a function of reliability and intervention times. Harsh operating conditions in deep waters will have a negative impact on reliability. Long mobilization times for intervention vessels and availability of spare parts are also drivers of the performance of subsea facilities. High day rates for intervention vessels operating in deep waters represent an additional risk to project economics.
Target levels of reliability and production availability can be ensured during early design phases through a systematic and rigid reliability management program. As part of the early design optimization effort, a comparison of alternative intervention philosophies and their impact on project economics should also be evaluated. Alternative subsea intervention philosophies may be on an:
1. On demand basis - which is subject to the availability of resources and costs at the time.
2. Contract basis - where intervention resources are available based on agreed contract agreements.
This paper describes the potential risks involved with the reliability of novel subsea solutions required for deep water production, the impact of capital intensive intervention costs and a risk-based approach that can be applied to optimize subsea reliability, design and intervention planning. Det Norske Veritas (DNV) has successfully applied detailed simulation modeling techniques within a risk based approach to optimize subsea developments.
MAXIMUM REVENUE GAINS FROM HIGH EFFICIENCY LPG EXPORT FACILITIES
Published by (GasTech Conference)
Authors: Pedram Fanailoo. Published December 01, 2006
Current trends in the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) markets suggest that global demand for these products will continue to increase in the coming years. Efficient operation of LPG/liquids production and export facilities will be required in order to maintain a competitive edge. There will be increasing pressure to squeeze supply chains to minimize initial and ongoing expenditure whilst ensuring security of supply. Capital and operating costs, which include cost of construction, maintenance and security, are considerable for product storage.
A recognized major operator contracted Det Norske Veritas (DNV) to utilize a risk-based approach to develop a unique performance simulation model that allowed the evaluation of potential design options and operation of LPG export facilities before construction. The scope of the analysis comprised a large gas supply network feeding several downstream customers via an onshore gas plant while liquid products were exported via a floating storage and offloading (FSO) vessel. Heavy penalties to the operator are in place in the event that gas supply shortfalls to downstream customers are incurred. LPG export may be a major source of gas supply interruptions to the production facilities in the event that liquids cannot be processed due to storage and export constraints.
A probabilistic approach was utilized by DNV to account for uncertainties in onspec and offspec LPG production, tanker export delays and downtime of the physical assets. The impact on the performance of the gas production facilities of several parameters such as alternative LPG storage capacities, equipment configurations and process capacities were evaluated. DNV were able to identify potential mitigating actions with the following results:
• 90% reduction in LPG production losses accrued by the FSO
• Reductions of up to 80% in the frequency of gas supply interruptions
• Increase of up to 1.2% in the LPG export efficiency
OTC 18788-PP THE NEED TO FACTOR ASSET RISK INTO LNG TERMINAL AGREEMENT NEGOTIATIONS
Published by (OTC)
Authors: Pedram Fanailoo, Steven Sparling. Published May 01, 2007
As developers race around the globe building LNG terminals, companies acquiring capacity at those terminals are analyzing their reliability and operability and how to manage the risks associated with synchronizing shipping schedules with terminal access rights and downstream sales commitments. This paper describes a risk-based, analytical approach that has been applied to achieve this. This analysis is particularly keen at terminals where there are multiple shippers.
Utilizing Monte Carlo simulation techniques, the approach incorporates terminal-specific reliability and operational factors, including contractual, regulatory and waterway constraints, to predict LNG terminal performance in terms of operability. “Operability” is a term that describes how efficient a terminal is at transferring LNG from the tankers through the terminal.
The analysis quantifies the impact on performance of factors such as vessel delays due to transport issues en route, berthing delays due to adverse conditions at the destination port, equipment reliability that limits terminal throughput, constraints in storage capacity, inventory management to prevent bottom-outs and top-outs of tanks, effects of gas cavern storage and “peaking” operations to compensate for prior shortfalls. With these quantitative insights, marketing teams can then identify “deal breaker” issues and craft strategies for negotiating LNG sales and purchase agreements and LNG terminal use agreements while minimizing demurrage.
Of particular value to marketing and shipping operations teams the ability to compare terminal performance envelopes for a virtual single-shipper terminal with a balkanized, multi-shipper terminal quantifies the value of vessel scheduling and other operational coordination among the shippers. This analysis will help to ensure that terminals do not enter into commercial agreements beyond the capabilities of the terminal and hence incur heavy penalties for shortfalls in performance.
A Regulatory Perspective
Published by (Offshore Engineer)
Authors: Pedram Fanailoo, Santhosh Mony, Eckhard Hinrichsen . Published March 01, 2016
Mexico is recognized as one of the top 10 oil producers of the world. To maximize the potential deepwater reserves several significant technical challenges must first be overcome. Understanding the risk associated with these operations and managing the same for unforeseen challenges is important to help optimize performance, safety, in a cost effective way.